Novo Nordisk A/S today
Novo Nordisk A/S
(As of 10:59 a.m. ET)
- 52 week range
- $99.42
▼
$148.15
- Dividend yield
- 0.67%
- P/E ratio
- 34.95
- Price target
- $150.40
Recent sales of an unknown stock, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Nasdaq:MDGLcould bode well for Novo Nordisk A/S New York Stock Exchange: NVW. The pharmaceutical giant has seen explosive growth in sales of its GLP-1 agonist drug, semaglutide. Marketed under the names Ozempic and Wegovy, drug sales grew by 32% and 76% during the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.
However, Novo Nordisk shares have fallen significantly since the all-time highs they reached in mid-2024. Now, the stock has delivered a total return of just 5% over the year, as of the December 17 close. Much of this is due to additional clinical results that have shown Zepbound’s stronger weight loss effectiveness. It’s the GLP-1 agonist drug sold by Novo’s biggest competitor, Eli Lilly New York Stock Exchange: LLY. I’ll detail the fall from grace Novo stock has seen in the second half of 2024. I’ll then explain other clinical and financial findings that could help revitalize Novo stock.
Semaglutide faces negative news on multiple fronts
In mid-2024, a study tested Novo’s semaglutide Against Eli Lilly’s Zepboundalso known as terzipatide. The goal was to find out which drug led to greater weight loss. Patients who took tirzepatide lost more weight than those who took semaglutide in each time period measured. After 12 months, patients who took Lilly experienced approximately 7% weight loss compared to those who took Novo. In December, researchers released more data confirming these findings. This news has been a dark cloud hanging over Novo stock. They’re down 24% since researchers released the study in July, as of the December 17 close.
Markets are clearly concerned about Novo’s ability to maintain sales growth for its GLP-1 product when there is an apparently superior treatment. There’s also a lot of talk about the drug being subject to Medicare price negotiations. This would lower the price of the drug, reducing the amount of revenue Novo could receive from each Medicare patient. Meanwhile, market commentators don’t seem to think Zepbound will be subject to the same scrutiny.
MASH: The potential next frontier for Semaglutide
Although Novo and Lilly are currently only approved to treat obesity and diabetes, the two companies are constantly researching them to treat other conditions. This includes metabolic syndrome-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). This is a disease in which fat accumulates in the liver, leading to liver scarring and cirrhosis if left untreated. It is different from alcoholic steatohepatitis (ASH). Liver damage is not due to excessive alcohol use. For this reason, it is also referred to as non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). There were no Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved treatments for MASH until recently.
Novo Nordisk A/S stock forecast today
$150.40
38.53% upHe buys
Based on 7 analyst ratings
| High expectations | $160.00 |
|---|---|
| Average expectations | $150.40 |
| Low expectations | $120.00 |
Novo Nordisk A/S stock forecast details
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval for its MASH treatment in March. Since then, sales have exploded. Revenues for MASH drug Rezdiffra rose more than 400% from the second quarter of this year to the third quarter. Its sales are $62 million Wall Street consensus expectations were crushed By 83%. Now, some analysts expect the drug’s sales to exceed $500 million in 2025. By 2030, analysts at Evaluate predict We expect Rezdiffra sales to reach $3 billion. They see the entire MASH treatment market as being worth about $10 billion annually.
The results of the Phase 3 trial suggest that Novo could take a significant portion of this market. The main goals of the MASH trials are to improve liver fibrosis and resolve steatohepatitis without worsening either condition in people with MASH. Researchers compare this to a placebo. In patients who took semaglutide, there was 17% greater rate than achieving both endpoints compared to the placebo group. The difference between patients who took Resdevra was only 12%. This suggests a potential efficacy advantage over Rezdiffra.
MASH approval could help change the narrative around semaglutide
With these results, Novo plans to file for regulatory approval of semaglutide for the treatment of MASH in the first half of 2025. It will do so in both Europe and the United States. This could make the company’s drug the second to enter the MASH market.
Given the huge growth in sales of Rezdifra, Novo may achieve the same result if the authorities approve its drug. Success in this multi-billion dollar market could be a huge boost to Novo’s value. That would help sentiment around semaglutide, given the recent negativity. However, Novo will need to continue to innovate in the weight loss market to maintain its dominant position over Eli Lilly and other competitors. Novo still Maintains a market share of 65% In global size GLP-1.
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