In 2025, gold looked like one of the most unstoppable assets in the financial markets. The yellow metal has repeatedly reached all-time highs. Overall, the price of gold was up approximately 57% as of the close on October 13.
This puts gold on track for its best calendar-year return since at least 1988. Even the gains of around 30% in 2007 and 2010 are seconds away from the gold explosion in 2025.
Now, the metal has surpassed $4,000 per ounce, trading near $4,100 on October 13. This comes almost seven months after gold reached $3,000 for the first time in March. However, the big question is what comes next. Below, we’ll analyze what enabled gold to get over the $4,000 hump and look at where analysts think gold may be headed.
Government shutdown and Chinese tensions help gold break the $4,000 level
Several factors allowed gold to surpass the $4,000 level in October. One obvious contributor is the US federal government shutdown, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the month. Democratic and Republican politicians also appear to be making little progress in reopening the government.
House Speaker Mike Johnson recently said that the United States “It is headed toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history.“
The lockdown creates significant economic and social uncertainty. Amid this uncertainty, investors often flock to gold due to its status as a “safe haven” asset.
The lockdown also delayed the release of key economic data on employment and inflation. The Federal Reserve examines this data closely when setting short-term interest rates. In the absence of this data, markets believe there is a 97% chance that the Fed will issue another 25 basis point rate cut in October.
This is another positive for gold, as lower interest rates usually lead to a weaker dollar.
The flaming relations between the United States and China are adding more fuel to gold’s rise. China recently announced stricter restrictions on the export of rare earth metals and magnets, vital resources for which it is the world’s largest supplier.
President Trump then responded by threatening to impose an additional 100% tariff on the country. As tensions escalate between the world’s two largest economies, gold is attracting more demand.
Bank of America focuses on gold expectations, seeing a rise to $5,000 in 2026
As with assets, opinions differ on what happens next. Although Bank of America is generally bullish on gold He particularly raised concerns about the metal’s rise In October. They said multiple technical signals point to “exhaustion” of gold’s rally as it approaches the $4,000 per ounce level.
They indicated that gold may witness a correction in the fourth quarter, and said that it may fall to the $3,525 level. However, Bank of America also left the door open for the rally to continue. Now it seems they have changed their style dramatically.
On October 13, Bank of America It raised its forecast for the price of gold in 2026 To 5000 dollars. However, it is He added that there is still a risk of a correction in the near term. Specifically, Bank of America stated that the White House’s “unconventional policy framework” and push for lower interest rates should support gold.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said He issued a target of $4,900 on gold by the end of 2026. This is a significant increase from their previous target of $4,300. The company cited potential inflows into Western gold ETFs and other central bank purchases of gold as the main reasons. French bank Société Générale He also set a goal of $5,000.
These targets indicate significant upside potential in gold of between 20% and 22% for $4,100.
GLD, GDX, GDXJ: 3 gold ETFs
With gold prices rising and analysts predicting further rise, investors have several ways to gain exposure depending on their risk tolerance and return goals. Whether through direct tracking of the metal or leveraged operations in the mining sector, these ETFs provide customized access to one of the best-performing assets in 2025.
Direct Gold Exposure: SPDR Gold Equity ETF
SPDR Gold Stocks Today
SPDR Gold Stocks
As of 04:10 PM ET
- 52 week range
- $236.13
▼
$382.38
- Assets under management
- $134.16 billion
the SPDR Gold Equity Fund NYSEARCA:GLD It is the most popular and liquid ETF for tracking the actual price of gold, providing a direct way to gain exposure without dealing with storage.
GLD is backed by physical bullion and reflects immediate price movements, making it ideal for investors looking for a low-cost, safe-haven asset.
With over $60 billion in assets under management, GLD is an essential holding for both retail and institutional investors, especially during periods of inflation or macro uncertainty.
In 2025, with gold rising to record highs above $4,100 an ounce, GLD has returned more than 55% year-to-date, closely tracking the metal’s explosive performance.
Bullish Leverage: VanEck Gold Miners ETF
VanEck Gold Miners ETF today
Van Eyck Gold Miners Fund
As of 04:10 PM ET
- 52 week range
- $33.42
▼
$79.49
- Dividend yield
- 0.51%
- Assets under management
- $23.26 billion
For those looking to benefit not only from gold prices but also from the profitability of gold producers, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF NYSEARCA: JDX Offers a more influential approach.
GDX owns nearly 50 large-scale gold mining companies like Newmont New York Stock Exchange: NoBarrick New York Stock Exchange: bAnd Agnico Eagle New York Stock Exchange: AEM— Companies with global operations and a large production scale.
These companies typically see strong earnings expansion when gold prices rise, giving GDX the ability to outperform GLD during sustained rallies.
In 2025, GDX returns about 134%, compared to gold price gains of 57%.
High-Risk, High-Reward: VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF today
Van Eyck Jr. Gold Miners Fund
As of 04:10 PM ET
- 52 week range
- $41.85
▼
$105.51
- Dividend yield
- 1.07%
- Assets under management
- $8.94 billion
For higher potential returns — with more volatility — investors can consider the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF NYSEARCA: GDXJ.
This fund focuses on smaller, more speculative gold miners, including junior exploration companies and early-stage producers.
Because these companies are more sensitive to gold prices and investor sentiment, GDXJ tends to see outsized performance during bull markets, and 2025 was no exception: it delivered a 146% return.
However, this upside comes with greater risks, especially in the event of falling prices or financing constraints.
Another important, but often overlooked, factor in the performance of mining ETFs is the impact of oil prices. Energy costs – especially diesel and fuel used in mining and transportation – constitute a major part of gold producers’ operating expenses.
In 2025, with WTI down about 17%, miners saw cost relief that helped boost profit margins across the board, contributing to the outperformance of GDX and GDXJ relative to gold itself.
Gold still has room to run: Why the bull run isn’t over yet
Gold’s meteoric rise in 2025 shows no signs of fading, with bullish outlooks from major banks and supportive macro conditions continuing to fuel momentum. While near-term volatility is possible, the longer-term case remains sound – especially if geopolitical tensions escalate and interest rate cuts are achieved.
For investors looking to get involved, ETFs like GLD, GDX, and GDXJ offer distinct ways to gain exposure, whether through direct gold pricing or the performance of leveraged miners. With upside targets extending towards $5,000 per ounce, gold remains one of the most pressing trades in the current market.
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Discover the eternal value of gold with our exclusive 2025 Gold Forecast. Find out why gold remains the ultimate investment for protecting wealth from inflation, economic shifts and global uncertainties. Whether you are planning for future generations or looking for reliable assets in turbulent times, this report is your essential guide to making informed decisions.
