Key points
- AppLovin insiders sell shares in 2024, but so what? It is up 1000% and is likely to trend higher.
- Analysts upgrade the stock and it leads above the $400 level with a chance to reach $500 in 2025.
- Third-quarter results confirmed the company’s claims, leading analysts to believe profits would triple within three years.
AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) insiders are selling stock in 2024. InsiderTrades is tracking 11 insiders who sold in 2024, including several directors, CEO, president, CFO, COO, CTO, and director Marketing executive for a large group of executives. Their turnover continued into the fourth quarter when 13 transactions were made, all sales, leaving their holdings at approximately 14%. The sales come in the face of rising stock prices, but do not pose any risk to investors. The company uses stock-based compensation, and the activity is consistent with that. Insiders own a significant amount of this stock and would be wise to take profits off the table regularly.
AppLovin loves the tailwind that institutions and analysts provide
What is Ablofen? It is a mobile technology company that runs Cloud-based platform Which connects marketers, publishers and advertisers to their target audience. The company uses AI to help with customer targeting and automation, helping businesses connect, convert and monetize traffic in ways that create value for shareholders. Users can find their audience and create ads, and there is a way for advertisers to connect with apps and target audiences via auction.
AppLovin’s results in 2024 include sustained high double-digit growth, accelerating growth compared to the previous year, outperformance, revenues above $1 billion, GAAP earnings, and improving outlook. Analysts expect growth to continue in the mid-20 percent range in 2025 and the margin to expand significantly. The long-term forecast is for earnings to more than triple from about $4 in 2025 to more than $12.30 by 2027.
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There is an opportunity in institutional trading data. Institutions bought into the balance every quarter in 2024 and own less than 60% of the shares. The chance is that institutional investors will continue to buy in balance, providing a tailwind to the market or even accelerating and consolidating it. There is reason to believe that institutions will strengthen the tailwind due to analysts’ response to the third quarter results.
What started as a series of reviews turned into a torrent when Daiwa Securities upgraded the stock to strong buy from hold, a double upgrade compounded by a significant increase in the price target. Analysts at the company see executives as executing well and delivering on what they promised when they launched Axon 2.0. Axon 2.0 is an upgraded version of the platform that was launched in 2023 and is responsible for increasing revenue and profitability.
Daiwa believes the company can sustain 20% revenue growth with just one toy industry and raised its price target. The increase in price target is noteworthy because it ranged from $80 to $280, nearly 50% above the pre-publication consensus figure, and sparked a massive round of revisions that put this stock at $400 or higher. The $400 level is 33% above the critical support target, near where AppLovin stock traded in mid-December.
AppLovin retreats to a technical buying opportunity
AppLovin pulled back from its highs after its Q3 release but is likely to hit new highs soon. The market pulls back in a normal, healthy correction, allowing itself time to prepare for the larger move. This would likely take the stock to the $400 level and then to all-time highs. Indicators, including MACD and Stochastic, are consistent with these expectations, indicating bullish conditions and converging momentum, a sign of market strength. The move to new highs will likely bring an influx of new investors and possibly take the market into the analyst’s high-end range near $500. Assuming the company continues to build on its success, the revision trend will continue to support this stock in 2025, making a move above $500 possible.
Companies in this article:
| a company | Current price | Price change | Dividend yield | P/E ratio | Consensus rating | Consensus price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aplofen (application) | $337.89 | -1.8% | nothing | 102.14 | Moderate purchase | $296.40 |
expertise
Thomas Hughes has been a contributing writer for InsiderTrades.com since 2019.
Areas of expertise
Technical analysis, S&P 500; Retail, Consumer, Consumer Staples, Dividend, High Yield, Small Business, Technology, Economic Data, Oil, Cryptocurrency
education
Associate of Arts in Culinary Technology
Past experience
Market watcher, trader and investor for many sites. She founded Passive Market Intelligence LLC to provide market research insights.
