A 40% discount on most products in a store doesn’t usually mean a “go up,” especially in the retail sector.
Target today
- 52 week range
- $85.36
▼
$161.50
- Dividend yield
- 5.32%
- P/E ratio
- 10.00
- Price target
- $109.65
But for Target Company New York Stock Exchange: TGTOctober will be a defining month for the stock, giving markets a real sense of whether it can reclaim higher prices before the end of 2025 and continue that momentum into 2026. The reason is simple: Circle Week is back with a revamped strategy.
like The target trades at just 55% of the 52-week highInvestors are watching closely to see whether the new strategy will succeed. If that happens, Circle Week could be the catalyst that pushes the stock to historic highs and positions it for long-term growth.
Circle Week evolves: from discounts to long-term loyalty
The goal is presented Initial 40% discount on store items From 5 to 12 October. Unlike previous Circle weeks, this time the discounts include legacy brands like Apple and General Electric, which may not carry the full 40% off but it’s still a good deal.
This year’s Circle Week brings more than just deals. The goal is to capitalize on the event as a The conversion path for its Circle 360 membership program. While previous years focused primarily on traffic and transaction volume, the new approach is more aligned with long-term customer acquisition and recurring revenue.
This approach is consistent with recent moves in the company’s financials. Over the past three years, the goal has intensified Capital expendituresInvesting heavily in logistical and technological infrastructure. Final quarter offers $790 million in capital expendituresmuch of which is geared toward supply chain improvements. These upgrades accommodate spikes in demand while reducing friction and cost, a key step if Circle Week succeeds in attracting a wave of new, high-margin subscribers.
Institutional confidence signals limited downside
As the stock begins to find its bottom range in August, institutional investors see an opportunity.
Target stock forecast today
$109.65
27.81% upHe catches
Based on 37 analyst ratings
| Current price | $85.79 |
|---|---|
| High expectations | $150.00 |
| Average expectations | $109.65 |
| Low expectations | $80.00 |
Details of target stock forecasts
Smead Capital Management felt confident enough to increase its holdings in Target shares by 20.4% to a net position of $194.6 million. This is a clear bet on Target’s future, and a vote of confidence that the price will recover due to these tailwinds and more.
analyst The consensus target price is $109.71 It indicates an increase of 22.8% from today’s levels. If Target can successfully expand its Circle 360 memberships, these forecasts may be conservative.
Even more convincing is the overall background: 92.5% chance the Fed will cut its interest rate by another 0.25% Expected October 2025. This will result in lower credit card and other borrowing costs, giving consumers more room to spend and get the best “value for their money” in this new targeted subscription.
Bull Case: Margins, Profits, and Market Positioning
Target has much better leverage than its peers in the consumer staples sector. Gross profit margin of 27.8% over the past 12 months outperforms Walmart Inc New York Stock Exchange: WMT 24.9%. This may not seem like a big difference, but when considering Target’s market cap of $40.5 billion compared to Walmart’s $811.9 billion, this slight difference means this advantage in… Pricing power and brand loyalty It is more important than it seems at first glance.
Even if Circle Week fails, the stock is already trading at such low levels that further drawdowns are now unlikely. The absent upside could also be mitigated by a $4.56 quarterly dividend, which, at today’s low, represents a 5.1% annualized dividend yield, allowing investors to be well compensated for their exposure.
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