Source: Brookings, “Decline of registrations for public schools”, August 2025
Private school registration apartment
Before the pandemic, the share of pupils of traditional public schools was held stable, oscillating almost 85% between 2016 and 2020. After the pandemic, registrations for traditional public schools dropped less than 80% and did not rebound.
Mysterious missing children represent a large part of the decline. But families also went to charter and virtual schools. Registration for the Charter School increased from 5% of students in 2016-2017 to 6% in 2023-24. The number of children attending virtual schools almost doubled by 0.7% before the pandemic in 2019-2020 to 1.2% in 2020-2021 and remained high.
Surprisingly, registrations for private schools remained stable at almost 9% of school-aged children between 2016-17 and 2023-24, according to this estimate of Brooks.
I expected that the registrations for private schools are soaring, while families would embrace disturbances of public schools during the pandemic, and as 11 states, including Arizona and Florida, launched their own educational savings account or new good programs to help pay for tuition fees. But another analysis, published this month by researchers from the University of Tulane, echoed the BrooKings figures. He noted that registrations for private schools had increased only 3 to 4% between 2021 and 2024, compared to the states without good. A new federal tax credit to finance private scholarships is still more than a year from the entry into force on January 1, 2027, and perhaps a greater passage in private education is still in advance.
The defections of traditional public schools are the most important in black and high districts
I would have guessed that richer families who can afford private tuition fees would be more likely to look for alternatives. But the Haute Pause districts had most of students outside the traditional public school sector. In addition to the private school, they were enrolled in charters, virtual schools, specialized schools for disabled students or other alternative schools, or were educated at home.
More than 1 in 4 students in high pause districts is not enrolled in a traditional public school, against 1 pupil out of 6 in low -poverty school districts. The loss of registration of the most steep public schools are concentrated in black predominance school districts. A third of students in black predominance districts are not in traditional public schools, doubles the share of white and Hispanic students.
Share of registrations for students outside of traditional public schools, by the poverty of the district
Source: Brookings, “Decline of registrations for public schools”, August 2025
Share of students not registered in traditional public schools by race and ethnic
Source: Brookings, “Decline of registrations for public schools”, August 2025
These differences are important for students who remain in traditional public schools. Schools in low -income and black neighborhoods are now losing the most students, forcing even higher budget cuts.
The bomb in demographic time
Before the pandemic, American schools were already heading for great contraction. The average American woman now gives birth to only 1.7 children in her lifetime, well below the fertility rate of 2.1 necessary to replace the population. Fertility rates should drop again. Brooke analysts assume that more immigrants will continue to enter the country, despite the current immigration restrictions, but not enough to compensate for the drop in births.
Even if families return to their pre-countryic registration patterns, the decline in the population would mean 2.2 million students from the public school less by 2050. But if parents continue to choose other types of schools at the rate observed since 2020, traditional public schools could lose up to 8.5 million students, compared to 43.06 million in 2023-24 to up to 34.5 million students.
Between the missing students, the choices made by certain black families and families in the districts on high pause and how many children have been born, the public school landscape changes. Follow and prepare yourself for mass closings from public schools.
This story on School registrations decrease was produced by The Hechinger reportAn independent non -profit press organization has focused on inequality and innovation in education. Register Evidence and others Newsletters Hechinger.
