MOSCOW: Two strategically important Russian military installations in Syria and Moscow’s very presence in the Middle East are under serious threat following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Sunday, Russian war bloggers have warned.
With Russian military resources largely stuck in Ukraine, where Moscow’s forces are racing to capture more territory before Donald Trump comes to power.
In the United States in January, Russia’s ability to influence the situation on the ground in Syria is far more limited than in 2015, when it intervened decisively to support President Bashar al-Assad.
The fall of Damascus to insurgents threatened to undermine Russia’s geopolitical influence in the Middle East and its ability to project power across the region, across the Mediterranean and into Africa. They also risk dealing an embarrassing setback to President Vladimir Putin, who cites Russia’s intervention in Syria as an example of how Moscow can use force to influence events from a distance and compete with the West.
But Russian war bloggers, some of whom are close to the Russian Defense Ministry and to whom Russian authorities grant greater freedom of speech than the military, say the most immediate threat is to the future of the Russian air base. of Hmeimim, in the Syrian province of Latakia, and its naval installation at Tartous on the coast.
The Tartous plant is Russia’s only repair and resupply center in the Mediterranean, and Moscow has used Syria as a departure point to transport its military contractors in and out of Africa.
Influential Russian war blogger “Rybar”, close to the Russian Defense Ministry and with more than 1.3 million followers on his Telegram channel, said Moscow’s forces were facing a serious threat.
“In reality, we must understand that the insurgents will not stop,” Rybar warned Friday.
“They will try to inflict the maximum defeats and the maximum damage to the reputation and physical integrity of the representatives of the Russian Federation (in Syria), and in particular to destroy our military bases.”
Relying on the Syrian army alone is a lost cause, he added, saying it would continue to decline if it was not properly supported by the Russian air force and specialists.
The Russian Defense Ministry could not be reached for comment on a non-working day. The Russian Embassy in Damascus has advised Russian nationals to leave Syria.
Asked in Doha on Saturday about the fate of the Russian bases, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was “not guessing” what would happen, but said Moscow was doing everything possible to prevent “terrorists” from taking over.
He said he was not worried about how events in Syria might affect his own reputation or that of Russia, but was concerned about the fate of the Syrian people.
The Russian Air Force has helped government forces launch airstrikes against the insurgents and the Kremlin has said it still supports Assad and is analyzing the situation to see what help is needed to stabilize the situation.
However, Russian war blogger “Fighterbomber”, which has more than 500,000 subscribers, said Moscow’s forces in Syria were seriously exposed and losing the Hmeimim air base would mean losing the ability to carry out airstrikes, which which, according to him, represents 75% of Moscow’s capacity there.
“Hmeimim airfield is not a multi-story industrial project with basements. This is a field with lightly assembled buildings on top, which will stop functioning as soon as the enemy comes within flying range of artillery or drones,” he said.
“The situation with the Tartus naval base is approximately the same. Of course, it can be defended and maintained for quite a long time if there is someone and something to do it, but it will either not be able to function at all or in a very limited way.
