Conference participants present implementation goals.
Thirty-three years after the 1992 Rio Echo Summit paved the way for the first Conference of the Parties – the most important decision-making body within the UNFCCC – the 30th Summit is about to return to Brazil from November 10-21. This time, the city of Belém in northern Amazonia will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30): a choice full of symbolism and challenges befitting the expectations associated with it.
The 2015 Paris Agreement, which limits global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius – preferably 1.5 degrees – compared to pre-industrial levels, is the basis for such measures.
According to the UNFCCC, the COP30 outcomes should look like a balance sheet moment to reshape the investment landscape for global governments, banks and companies for the remainder of the decade. At the top of the agenda is the activation of the new collective quantitative target, a process that should raise at least $1.3 trillion in climate finance for developing countries. It should come hand in hand with the emergence of different portfolios of nature finance instruments, which will broadly shift risk premiums, change the cost of capital for transitional projects, and create new asset classes linked to ecosystem outcomes.
“There are high expectations that COP30 will achieve the NCQG target of $1.3 trillion (financing).”
ian lopez, Value investments
According to Marina Cansado, founder and CEO of sustainability advisory Converge Capital, this is the time when the COP must move from discussion to implementation.
“Most of the points of agreement have already been negotiated,” she says. “We need to go further. A key focus and outlook is also around Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – the voluntary amount each country commits to fighting climate change – over the next 10 years. The success of COP30 will be measured by separating signed agreements from actual commitment levels starting now.”
According to a report released by the Inter-American Development Bank (IBD) in September in preparation for COP30, climate financing by multilateral development banks rose 10% to $137 billion in 2024 year-on-year, with climate financing for low- and middle-income economies increasing 14% to more than $85 billion, and private financing for climate investments jumping 33%.
“It is the private sector that will have to lead the charge on cutting emissions, rethinking business models, logistics, materials and manufacturing processes, but it will need financing to align its actions with the Paris goals,” says Cansado. “We need to quadruple financing from the current $2 trillion per year to $8-9 trillion. Two-thirds of these resources already come from the private sector, according to the UNFCCC, and they will have to continue to come from that side of the equation.”
Quantitative financial goals
One of the central discussions of COP30 is translating political ambition into deployable capital. High on the agenda is the NCQG’s process to achieve $1.3 trillion in climate finance for developing countries, which is expected to be activated at the Belem meeting, in accordance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
According to Ian Lopez, economic and investment advisor at Brazilian investment house Valor Investimentos, mobilizing this amount requires reducing risk instruments that could attract capital for mitigation and adjustment in emerging markets.
“We originally saw a boom in the ESG fund market, but over time those funds were declining in favor of a more rigid, governance-focused model,” Lopez says. “We cannot separate market influences from real-life economics and the financial sector – they are completely interconnected – but expectations are high that COP30 will catalyze public and private partnerships to achieve the NCQG’s $1.3 trillion target. Agreements that benefit the global economy as a whole clearly impact the financial sector, making markets react immediately.”
However, Lopez warns that implementing carbon markets, where companies pay for their emissions, will increase manufacturing costs, which will have to be offset with government help, sovereign funds or regulation.
“These could come in the form of tax incentives or penalties, or regulatory oversight, but also creative models such as offsetting taxes on certain modes of transport, as we are already seeing in Europe,” he says. Companies, especially in the US, Europe and China, tend to be better at establishing long-term strategies for such matters, and getting ahead of higher costs by shifting them or including them in future planning. On the other hand, some companies in the Middle East, some Chinese companies and fossil fuel-related industries that have not prioritized ESG criteria are only now reviewing their strategy, as the social and economic costs are becoming more apparent.
Brazil looks to lead
Brazil, host of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), has announced its ambition to introduce other key instruments for financing nature at the summit, including the Tropical Forever Forest Facility (TFFF), which has been introduced as a multi-billion-dollar financing instrument to reward forest management. Early market briefs provided by the Brazilian government and COP30 organizers suggest that the Fund could mobilize up to $4 billion annually in forest-specific payments.
The initiative is part of what Lopez highlights as a moment for Brazil to demonstrate its potential and leadership position in the transitional global economy, something he says is often neglected.
“Brazil already has 80% of its energy matrix based on renewable energy sources, which makes it very attractive to international institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East,” he adds. “We need to show that the country is a good and safe investment destination, with strong legal safeguards that prioritize environment, governance and long-term economic development.”
“We also have the space available, the large hydropower array and the water resources needed to attract significant investment in global data centers that are power-hungry, but also need water cooling,” he says. “This is a perfect fit, and could attract huge amounts of capital here. We just need to boost credibility and increase the country’s profile.”
Cansado has similar views: “It is a great opportunity for people to see the forest as a place inhabited by more than 30 million people and to focus the conversation on the conservation, protection and sustainable development of this vital global area.
“Brazil is already a leader and leader in decarbonisation and nature-positive solutions in various sectors. The UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) gives us the opportunity to position the country as a reference and hub for global climate and nature solutions, as well as catalyzing resources to make these solutions scalable, generating wealth, jobs and GDP while contributing globally to the transformation process.”
The selection of Belém as a host city, with a focus on the Amazon region, also created a myriad of bottlenecks that required local authorities to dramatically expand infrastructure and accommodation in a short time frame. According to the federal government and the state of Pará, of which Belém is the capital, public spending to prepare the city for the more than 55,000 delegates and heads of government expected to attend the summit at various points amounted to about R$4.5 billion (about $820 million).
Elisabeth Grunwald, president of the Pará trade association and one of the main contributors to Belém’s preparation for the summit, says the city is ready for the event.
She points out that “concerted efforts between federal, state and city governments have allowed for innovative solutions, such as adding 22,000 temporary and permanent hotel beds, investing in the airport and roads, partnering with private sector hosts, and undertaking infrastructure work on 12 out of 16 water canals that crisscross the city for sanitation work.”
Cansado says the perceived difficulties of hosting the summit in the Amazon also led to creative thinking to facilitate the participation of those who cannot attend in person.
“The private sector has created parallel events held in other major cities across the country before and during COP 30 to link with the summit,” she says. “We are hosting a Climate Implementation Summit in São Paulo a week before the event, with CEOs and global private sector leaders, and an investment conference in Belém during the first week of the summit has a particular focus on the financial sector.”
Summit goals versus the realism gap
Although the private sector made many pledges in the run-up to COP 30, including accelerating the deployment of renewable energy sources, investments in nature, and the launch of green products, previous COP sessions show a gap between headlines and widespread financial deployment, according to UN data. The crucial test in Belém will be whether the ambitious implementation of the NCQG does not turn into a political talking point rather than a permanent reallocation of capital.
“Under COP standards, the agreements are non-binding and serve as a signal to countries and companies,” Cansado says. “The private sector already recognizes that the climate agenda is one of innovation, prosperity and resilience that makes economic sense. The measure of success must be broadened to include not just what is negotiated, but also engagement and concrete action.”
