US tariffs hit African exports hard. Now, governments and companies must develop an alternative plan to expand trade and grow their economies.
US President Donald Trump is not enthusiastic about Africa; He mocked Lesotho as a place “no one had ever heard of” and one he had never set foot on the continent.
However, in July, Africans were optimistic that Trump was calmer. At a summit held in Washington with the heads of five African countries, he announced a shift from “aid to trade” in American efforts to strengthen relations with the continent.
Trump said that shifting US-Africa relations toward trade and investment to promote self-reliance and mutual prosperity and move away from traditional dependence on aid is critical. He had already dismantled USAID, the main US foreign aid agency, leaving a series of negative social impacts on the continent.
Many took this apparent pledge to expand trade with suspicion. A few weeks later, Trump unveiled the reciprocal tariff rate, shocking 22 African countries that were suddenly slapped with tariffs ranging from 15% to 30%, which began on August 7.
South Africa, Algeria, and Libya were the most affected, with customs tariffs reaching 30%, while Tunisia received 25%. Small Lesotho, Chad and Equatorial Guinea were not spared, with new rates reaching 15%.
Pinto Zahara Sakor, a doctoral researcher at the Norwegian Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO), points to the shrinkage of the promise of more trade with Africa and the subsequent imposition of punitive tariffs that would harm the continent.
“Diversification can enable Africa to dictate its trade discourse.”
Zahraa Sakour,brio
“These mixed messages create uncertainty for African companies and investors,” she says. The endgame is to stifle the very trade the United States claims to promote.
The largest economies are within reach
While it only targets about half of the continent’s countries, two of its largest economies, South Africa (30%) and Nigeria (15%), are on the list. Most others struggle with extreme poverty and job creation challenges. Among them is Botswana (15%), whose economy is stagnating.
In numbers, African exports to the United States are not large, as they represent only 1.5% of the continent’s collective GDP. Africa’s exports to the United States of $34 billion constitute a mere 1.2% of total US imports, which is just a drop in the ocean when compared to Washington’s global trade volume of $3.2 trillion.
But numbers don’t tell the whole story. Over the past 25 years, trade relations between the United States and Africa have been defined primarily by access to tariff exemption under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). With his new tariff agenda, Trump abandoned the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, damaging future export prospects that include automobiles, machinery, textiles, clothing, metals, and agricultural products, among other products.
“What we are seeing in the Trump era is American imperialism,” says Patrick Bond, a sociology professor at the University of Johannesburg in South Africa. It is expected that the damage that customs duties will cause to the continent will be enormous.
An example of this is South Africa. The United States is its second largest trading partner after China, and the agricultural and automobile manufacturing industries bear the brunt of the tariffs. According to data from NAAMSA, the South African auto industry lobby group, the United States is the third-largest destination for the country’s automobile exports. South Africa shipped approximately $1.9 billion worth of vehicles to the US market in 2024, representing 6.5% of total exports. But due to tariffs, car exports fell by 60% on average this year.
South Africa warns that 100,000 jobs are at risk due to the new fees, which is devastating for a country with an unemployment rate of 33% and where crime rates are among the highest in the world. The only bright spot is the exemption for platinum, gold and other metals, which will still be zero-rated.
The situation is worse in Lesotho, which is ranked among the poorest countries in the world with youth unemployment at 48%. The government declared a “state of disaster”, saying that US tariffs would destroy the textile and clothing industry, which employs 40,000 people.
Lesotho is one of Africa’s largest apparel exporters to the United States, thanks to the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. In 2024, it exported goods with a cumulative value of $237.2 million to the US market, accounting for 75% of apparel exports. The industry represents about 20% of the gross domestic product.
Make a plan B
Sackur urges that Trump’s tariffs call for “rapid policy responses” to protect the continent’s long-term economic prospects. The African Growth and Opportunity Act was scheduled to expire on September 30; While Congress has the authority to renew it, the current administration does not hide its distaste for the agreement. With the new tariffs, the era of duty-free regional market access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act is over. Instead, Washington wants to shift toward bilateral deals that extract concessions such as market access for American goods or consensus on geopolitical issues.
“US-Africa trade relations may become more fragmented and conditional, with a focus on select ‘friendly’ countries with lower tariffs or new free trade agreements,” Sakor says. Countries such as Morocco, which concluded a binding free trade agreement with the United States, and Kenya, which is currently negotiating this agreement, were among the countries that escaped the backlash.
With the United States playing hardball, Africa has reached a point where it must devise a plan B for future trade policy. One starting point could be to deepen intra-African trade by accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
On paper, the AfCFTA has the potential to boost intra-continental trade to 53% from about 18% currently, grow the manufacturing sector by $1 trillion, generate $470 billion in income, and create 14 million jobs by 2035, according to the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).
But six years after signing the agreement, the continent has yet to record any tangible benefits. Last year, trade reached $208 billion, up 7.7% from 2024, according to Afreximbank. The difficulties are further exacerbated by the disintegration of regional economic blocs and the rise of non-tariff barriers.
“The African Continental Free Trade Area is encouraging in theory, but it does not yet offer mutually beneficial market opportunities,” Bond points out. For this reason, Africa may have to follow a different course of action: strengthening trade relations with China and exploring opportunities in other global markets.
Over the past 25 years, China has risen to become Africa’s largest trading partner. Last year, trade with the People’s Republic reached $294.3 billion, a staggering increase from $13.9 billion in 2000, according to Chinese government data. This amount dwarfs bilateral trade between the United States and Africa, which was worth $104.9 billion in 2024.
Chinese participation has been a mixed blessing. Beijing has flooded Africa with cheap goods, making emerging industries uncompetitive. This, along with lessons learned from Washington’s erratic behavior, suggests that the continent needs to strike balanced, reciprocal agreements with multiple trading partners.
“Diversification can enable Africa to dictate its trade discourse,” says Sackur, arguing that this is crucial if the continent is to promote sustainable growth beyond unilateral preferences such as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. Sakor points out that the European Union, Russia, India, Japan, South Korea and the Middle East are some of the markets that provide Africa with opportunities to deepen trade relations.
Africa must decide whether to accept higher US tariffs as a cost of doing business, build its relations further with China and Russia, or take a more diversified approach. It is clear that the last two options will only lead to isolating the continent from Washington.
