Key points
- Freshpet’s direction and slow growth are not an issue; Weakness accounted for, and now a rebound is within reach.
- Institutional, insider, and analyst activity is in line with the October bottom for FRPT stock.
- Upside potential is 100% according to consensus: Analysts are likely to start raising targets soon.
Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT) insiders hit bottom on their shares with several insider purchases recorded in September.
Down nearly 70% from the 2025 high, the market selloff was not unwarranted but incredibly extended, providing deep value in this high-quality stock. Freshpet faces headwinds in 2025 but continues to grow at an industry-leading pace Operational quality and free cash flow Driving value for investors.
Data from InsiderTrades reveals six purchases from six insiders in September. The buyers included five directors and the company’s general counsel, who are noteworthy for several reasons. Among them is the fact that this is the first internal activity in nearly a year, the last of which was a sale.
The other reason is that these insiders already own large stakes in the stock and have no reason to buy more. Currently, insiders, including major shareholders, own about 4.5% of the shares.
Institutional activity is also in line with the market bottom for Freshpet stock. Institutions and large individual owners control approximately 99% of the shares, creating an effective force that sold in the second quarter, in line with the market decline, and then returned to buying in the third quarter.
Q3 activity is in line with the market bottom and is expected to provide a boost, assuming the trend continues. This trend will continue, based on Q3 results, which offer no new reasons to sell and many reasons to buy.
Freshpet: Slowing growth is priced into this market
Frespet’s sell-off was due in large part to slower growth exacerbated by macroeconomic headwinds and diminishing guidance. However, Q3 release and guidance update It indicates that weakness has been priced in, and that deep value now exists.
The stock isn’t cheap, trading at more than 45 times its 2025 consensus estimates, but the growth outlook remains strong. Analysts expect a sustained double-digit revenue CAGR and margin improvements, leading to a double-digit earnings CAGR. In this scenario, FRPT trades at 10 times its 2030 EPS forecast and 5 times its 2035 forecast, suggesting this stock May increase by 100% to 400% Over the next few years.
Analyst trends also indicate that this stock could rise by triple digits over the coming quarters. Although 2025 trends are in line with declines in stock prices, incl Many targeted price cutsThe floor is set near the Q3 lows, consensus is forecasting a 100% share price increase, and a guidance update is likely to confirm price targets, if not a resumption of bullish behavior.
Fresphet’s FY2025 guidance update is favorable despite restating at the lower end of the previous range. The reason for the reduction is macroeconomic and beyond the company’s control. Meanwhile, it is expected to grow 13% year over year, reduce capital expenditures, and generate positive free cash flow for the year.
Positive free cash flow is important because the company has maintained it for three quarters and appears to have turned the corner, offering the potential for supported earnings and free cash flow growth when macroeconomic conditions are more favorable for the company. Retail stocks.
Freshpet jumps 5% based on results; 100% possible within a few months
The Q3 release sent FRPT’s stock price up 5% pre-market, underscoring support and the potential for a rebound. The potential for a bounce is also evident in trading volume and MACD indicators, which reveal increased activity as price action approaches deep value levels and an overextended market.
The MACD indicator shows that the bulls are already in control; With a catalyst, they can push a move to the 150-day and 150-week moving averages, crucial resistance targets, with relative ease. A move to the 150-week EMA would put this market within striking distance of 100% price increase From early November levels.
Companies in this article:
| a company | Current price | Price change | Dividend yield | P/E ratio | Consensus rating | Consensus price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freshpet (FRPT) | $54.20 | +10.1% | nothing | 81.89 | He catches | $98.47 |
expertise
Thomas Hughes has been a contributing writer for InsiderTrades.com since 2019.
- Professional background: Thomas Hughes is managing partner of Passive Market Intelligence LLC, a market research platform he launched in 2023 with a mission: “We monitor the market so you don’t have to.” He has worked as a blogger, stock market commentator, and independent analyst since 2010 and has been actively involved in trading and investing since 2005.
- credentials: He holds an Associate of Arts degree in Culinary Technology – training that has honed his discipline, attention to detail, and ability to anticipate results, all of which are reflected in his work as a market analyst.
- Financial experience: Thomas has been writing about finance and investing since 2011, when he discovered it could be more than just a personal passion – it could be a career. He has been a contributing writer for InsiderTrades.com since 2019.
- Focus on writing: He specializes in the S&P 500, small-cap stocks, dividend and high-yield strategies, consumer staples, retail, technology, oil, and cryptocurrencies. His analysis blends chart-based technical setups with key fundamental insights, helping readers identify actionable trends.
- Investment approach: Thomas takes a hybrid approach that combines technical analysis with deep fundamental research. He frequently writes about macroeconomic shifts, earnings trends, and sentiment-based trading signals.
- inspiration: Thomas first became interested in stocks after attending a seminar on how to buy and sell your own stocks. This event opened his eyes to the potential of the market and sparked a lifelong interest in investing.
- Fun fact: Thomas started working on model railways by accident a few years ago, and now he can’t stop running the rails.
- Areas of expertise: Technical and fundamental analysis, S&P 500, retail and consumer sectors, dividends, market trends
education
Associate of Arts in Culinary Technology
