Despite the uncertainty in the international environment, Roger Madrigal Lopez expects stable growth for the Costa Rican economy.
Global Finance: What is your view on the Costa Rican economy over the next 12 months?
Roger Madrigal LopezCosta Rica is a small, open economy exposed to the global political and economic environment. Despite geopolitical conflicts and challenges caused by the slowdown in international economic activity, forecasts by international organizations and the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) indicate that the Costa Rican economy is on a path of moderate and stable growth over the next 12 months.
The BCCR expects GDP growth of 3.8% in 2025, driven primarily by domestic demand and the strong performance of goods exports, particularly in medical devices and agricultural products such as pineapples. Although economic activity is expected to slow in 2026, projected growth is still above the global average, reflecting the resilience of the national economy in an uncertain international environment characterized by trade and geopolitical tensions.
Regarding inflation, prices have remained low and stable, with headline inflation averaging 0% and core inflation 0.8% during the first half of 2025. Inflation expectations are stable within the 3% target and a tolerance range of ±1%. Inflation is expected to return to the tolerance range by mid-2026, strengthening confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflationary pressures arising from monetary forces low.
Labor market conditions continue to improve, with the unemployment rate falling to 7.4%. Real incomes rose, especially in the private sector and among women, and formal employment expanded.
The central government will continue to achieve primary surpluses and gradually reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, contributing to fiscal sustainability and improving the country’s risk perception.
GF: Have you seen progress on reforms that support long-term growth, including improving human capital, strengthening infrastructure, and enhancing competition? If so, which ones in particular?
Madrigal Lopez: Costa Rica needs to make additional efforts to improve the educational level of residents in vulnerable areas, continue to encourage tourism, and standardize infrastructure provision models based on public-private partnerships; However, in recent years, the country has made great strides in implementing reforms that support long-term growth, especially in areas of critical importance to investors and policymakers. For example, in the area of human capital development, the country’s authorities have focused on reducing informal employment, expanding bilingualism, and improving access to early education and care.
On the infrastructure and competitiveness front, Costa Rica is promoting climate-resilient public investment through partnerships, such as the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility. This not only supports sustainable development, but also opens up opportunities for green financing.
The country is also working to institutionalize the independence of its central bank, a move that enhances macroeconomic stability and investor confidence. At the same time, regulatory reforms are being implemented to reduce barriers to formal business establishment and enhance competition. Together, these reforms position Costa Rica as a more attractive and stable destination for long-term investment.
GF: A year ago, you explained how amending Article 188 of the Costa Rican Constitution would give the BCCR administrative and governance independence. Is there progress on this?
Madrigal Lopez: The reform enjoys broad support from international partners such as the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, who consider it a milestone in protecting price stability and enhancing investor confidence. While approval is still pending, the IMF has urged authorities in Costa Rica to move forward without delay, recognizing that reform represents a cornerstone of the country’s medium-term institutional agenda. This proposed amendment was part of the agenda during special sessions in May and July of 2025, but made little progress.
GF: What keeps you up at night?
Madrigal Lopez: As a central bank governor, my main concern is the commitment to maintaining a low and stable inflation rate, as set out in our Basic Law. In this way, the entity I represent can contribute to the country’s macroeconomic stability, facilitate effective economic decision-making by various stakeholders, and thus maintain the institutional credibility of the central bank.
