India fears that the Chinese Mega-Dam of Tibet to reduce water flows on a large river up to 85% during the dry season, according to four familiar sources with the question and a government analysis seen by Reuters, which has encouraged Delhi to accelerate the plans for its own dam to mitigate the effects.
The Indian government has been planning projects since the early 2000s to control the water flow of the Angsi glacier in Tibet, which supports more than 100 million people downstream in China, India and Bangladesh. But the plans were hampered by a fierce and sometimes violent resistance of the border state residents of the Arunachal Pradesh, which fear that their villages will be overwhelmed and the lifestyle destroyed by any dam.
Then in December, China announced that it would build the largest hydroelectric dam in the world in a Border County just before the Yarlung Zangbo river crosses India. This has sparked fears in New Delhi that his long -standing strategic rival – which has territorial affirmations in the Arunachal Pradesh – could arm his control of the river, which comes from the Angsi glacier and is known as Siang and Brahmapoutre in India.
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The largest hydroelectric company in India in May has moved survey materials under the protection of the armed police near a potential site of the Siang Multipurpose Storage dam, which would be the largest dam in the country, if it was completed. High Indian officials also organized meetings on the acceleration of construction this year, including one organized in July by the office of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to two of the sources, which spoke under the cover of anonymity to discuss sensitive questions from the government.
Delhi’s concerns were described in the analysis of the Indian government not dated to the impact of the Chinese dam, of which Reuters corroborated with four sources and reports for the first time.
Beijing did not publish detailed plans on the construction of the dam, but the analysis was based on previous work carried out by institutions affiliated with the Indian government as the central water commission and represented the expected size of the Chinese project, which inaugurated in July and will cost nearly $ 170 billion.
Delhi estimates that the Chinese dam will allow Beijing to divert up to 40 billion cubic meters of water, or a little more than a third of what is received each year at a key border point, depending on sources and the document. The impact would be particularly acute during the non-mousson months, when temperatures increase and the land becomes sterile through the expanses of India.
The Upper Siang project would attenuate that with its 14 billion storage capacities projected, allowing India to release water during the dry season. This could mean that the main regional city of Guwahati, which depends on industry and agriculture with high water intensity, would see a reduction in supply of 11%, according to sources and the document, against 25% if the Indian dam was not built.
The project could also mitigate any Beijing movement to release devastating torrents of downstream water, sources said.
If the dam is at its minimum level of draw – where the water is stored at less than 50% of its height – it would be able to completely absorb any excess water released from a violation of Chinese infrastructure, depending on the document and the sources. India plans a proposal to maintain 30% of its empty dam at any time in order to take into account unexpected overvoltages, according to two sources.
A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared in response to Reuters’ questions according to which hydroelectric projects “underwent a rigorous scientific research on safety and environmental protection, and will not have a negative impact on water resources, ecology or the geology of downstream countries.”
“China has always maintained a responsible attitude towards the development and use of cross-border rivers and has maintained long-term communication and cooperation with downstream countries like India and Bangladesh,” added the spokesman.
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Modi’s office and the Indian ministries responsible for water and external affairs did not answer Reuters’ questions. The hydroelectric major belonging to the State, the NHPC, did not make a request for comments either.
The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the first diplomat S. Jaishankar had expressed his concerns concerning the dam at a meeting with his Chinese counterpart on August 18.
India has itself been accused by Pakistan, a Chinese ally with which it briefly faced arms water. Delhi This year suspended his participation in a 1960 water sharing treaty with Islamabad and plans to divert the flows of another crucial river far from his neighbor downstream.
An international court ruled that India should join the agreement, but Delhi affirms that the panel does not have jurisdiction.
Development or destruction?
When NHPC workers moved surveying materials near the village of Parong in May, angry residents damaged their machines, destroyed a neighboring bridge and looted the police tents sent to keep the operation.
Many of them are members of the ADI community of Arunachal, who live off the paddy, orange and sweet lime farms in the hills and valleys wrapped in mist fed by Siang.
The villagers have set up makeshift articles on regional roads to refuse access to NHPC workers. This forced the security staff to travel Miles, often under cover of the night, to reach a potential site of the dam.
At least 16 ADI villages are likely to be lost in the dam storage area, directly affecting around 10,000 people, according to two sources. Community leaders say that more than 100,000 people will be impacted overall.
“Cardamom, paddy, jacquier and pear that we cultivate on this land help educate our children and support our family,” said Odoni Pabin, a teaching adi and mother of two. “We are going to fight the death dam.”
The dam has the support of the Chief Minister of Arunachal, who is a member of Modi’s party and qualified the Chinese existential threat project.
The project “will ensure water safety and provide moderation of floods to counter any increase in water,” the state government said in a statement, adding that it had decided in June to engage in detailed discussions with families that could be affected by the dam.
The Alo Lebiban legislator, an ADI which represents an area which would be overwhelmed by the Indian project, said that it thought that the inhabitants could be convinced to move if they received a generous compensation.
The NHPC plans to spend more than $ 3 million in education and emergency infrastructure to encourage villagers to move elsewhere, according to three sources, citing the instructions of the Modi office.
In a sign of progress, three villages in the region have recently agreed to allow NHPC officials to do a work -related work, according to the government of Arunachal and dozens of premises.
India has a history of militant movements against large dams, which sometimes slowed down these projects by years or forced them to reduce.
Even if the upper dam of Siang obtains the green light, it could take a decade to build after hitting the land, according to four sources. This means that the project would probably be completed after the Chinese project, that Beijing plans to start generating power from the start in the mid -2030s.
The delay means that an Indian project would be vulnerable during the construction if Beijing suddenly releases water during the monsoon season, triggering a push that could eliminate temporary dams, two of the sources said.
ADI international experts and activists also warned that the construction of large dams in Tibet and seismically active Arunachal could increase the risks for downstream communities.
The “Chinese dam is built in a high seismicity area and in an area that undergoes extreme weather events,” said Sayanangshu Modak, an expert in the water relationship in India-China at the University of Arizona.
“These types of extreme meteorological events trigger landslides, mud shifts, floods on the lighting of the ice lake,” he said. “So that raises concerns about the safety of dams … It is a very legitimate concern and India should engage with China.”
