Ukraine and its European allies were supported by Donald Trump’s security promise in kyiv to help end the war in Ukraine, but to face many unanswered questions, including the way Russia will be ready to play ball.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised the extraordinary summit on Monday at the White House on Monday with the American president as a “step forward” to end the deadliest conflict in Europe in 80 years and towards the establishment of a trilateral meeting with the Vladimir Putin and Trump of Russia in the coming weeks.
Zelenskiy was flanked by leaders of allies, notably Germany, France and Great Britain at the top and its warm relationship with Trump strongly contrasting with their disastrous oval office meeting in February.
But beyond the optics, the path to peace remains deeply uncertain and Zelenskiy can be forced to make painful compromises to end the war, which began with the large-scale invasion of Russia in February 2022 and which, according to analysts, killed or injured more than a million people.
Although the Washington talks allowed a feeling of temporary relief in kyiv, there was no relaxation. Russia launched 270 drones and 10 missiles in a night attack on Ukraine, Ukrainian Air Force said the most important this month. The Ministry of Energy said that Russia had targeted energy facilities in the Central region of Poltava, which is home to the only oil refinery in Ukraine, causing large fires.
“The good news is that there was no breath (in the White House). Trump did not demand the Ukrainian capitulation or cut support. Muching music was positive and the transatlantic alliance lives,” a former British defense attaché in kyiv and Moscow told Reuters.
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“Lowering, there is a lot of uncertainty about the nature of security guarantees and what the United States has in mind.”
The allies of Ukraine had to hold talks in the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” format on Tuesday to discuss the way. NATO defense leaders will also discuss security guarantees for Ukraine on Tuesday, said a source close to the case, without mentioning more details.
Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that its managers were working on the content of security guarantees.
Russia has not been explicit to a meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that Moscow had not rejected any format for discussing the peace process in Ukraine but that any meeting of national leaders “must be prepared with the greatest meticulousness.”
“It does not yet feel peace. I think Putin will not go for that, it is not this kind of person,” said a 63 -year -old resident of kyiv, Oksana Melnyk. “I really wanted everything to end peacefully, but, unfortunately, many of our people are dead and it’s very bitter.”
Red lines
Putin warned that Russia would not tolerate NATO alliance troops on Ukrainian soil. He has also shown no signs of reducing territorial requests, including land not under the military control of Russia, after his discussions at the top with Trump last Friday in Alaska.
Trump did not specify the form that US security guarantees could take, and decreased to insist that Russia accepts a cease-fire before the peace negotiations are seriously beginning.
Neil Melvin, Director of International Security at the Royal United SERVICE SERVICE reflection group, said Russia could lead to war while trying to divert American pressure with prolonged peace negotiation.
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“I think that behind that, there is a struggle between Ukraine and Europeans on the one hand, and the Russians on the other, so as not to introduce himself to Trump as the obstacle to his peace process.”
“They are all on tiptoe on Trump” to avoid blame, he said, adding that on safety guarantees “, the problem is that Trump said is so vague that it is very difficult to take it seriously.”
The last direct talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Türkiye in July but not at the state level. Putin also refused Zelenskiy’s public invitation to meet him face to face in May.
Jaroslava Barbieri, researcher for Ukraine for Forum for Chatham House, said that European leaders and Zelenskiy had done a “good job trying to keep the United States on board”, using a “wave of thanks” to keep Trump engaged.
She said that the message of European leaders and Zelenskiy to Trump was to be “careful about what the Kremlin promises you, because … whatever the promises they give, this is not worth the document on which they are written”.
Orysia Lutsevych, researcher at Chatham House, said that the worst of Trump selling Ukraine to Putin was avoided “during the talks on Monday, but she added:
“A bilateral with Putin is dangerous for Zelenskiy. Even if that happens, which is very unlikely, Putin will blame him for having obstructed peace, to be unreasonable. In such a case, the question is: who Donald Trump will trust his refined efforts of peace.”
