Eli Lilly & Co. Today
Eli Lilly & Company
As of 01/14/2025 at 03:58 PM ET
- 52 week range
- $612.70
▼
$972.53
- Dividend yield
- 0.81%
- P/E ratio
- 80.30
- Price target
- $1,002.22
Eli Lilly & Company New York Stock Exchange: LLY It is a major global pharmaceutical company in the medical sector. The company has made headlines with its dominant GLP-1 drug, Tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for treating type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. While there are several potential contenders in clinical trials, the current GLP-1 market represents a duopoly dominated by Eli Lilly. Novo Nordisk A/S New York Stock Exchange: NVWmaker of Semaglutide sold under the brands Ozempic and Wegovy. In addition, Lilly has a strong pipeline led by its recently approved FDA-approved treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, donanemab, sold as Kisonla. Mericizumab is a treatment for Crohn’s disease, and lebrikizumab is a treatment for atopic dermatitis and asthma. Pertobrutinab is a next-generation BTK inhibitor.
Record sales of GLP-1 drugs pushed Lilly shares to a new all-time high of $972.59 in 2024 but have since fallen 17.75% as of January 10, 2025. Lilly authorized a $15 billion stock buyback on 9 December 2024. For investors, this pullback may be the opportunity they have been waiting for. Here are four reasons not to look a gift horse in the mouth and consider taking a stand in the company on this decline.
1) Earnings still overwhelming, but $2.83 billion in IPR and development fees hampered Q3 results
Lilly has been an earnings powerhouse, but its latest earnings fell short of consensus estimates, which was the primary driver before the selloff. Eli Lilly reported third-quarter 2024 EPS of $1.18, missing consensus estimates by 27 cents. Revenue rose 20.4% year over year to $11.44 billion, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $12.09 billion. Bolstering revenue from its olanzapine portfolio Zyprexa, whose global commercial rights Lilly sold to CHPLAPHARM in April 2023, revenue actually jumped 42% year-over-year while global volume jumped 36% year-over-year.
Additionally, third-quarter earnings also included a one-time charge known as an in-process research and development (IPR&D) charge of $2.83 billion, or $3.08 per share. That’s the fee Lilly took for the acquisition of Morphic and its integrin therapies, which saw revenue rise 17% year over year.
2) Tirzepatide continues to crush and get more approvals
Eli Lilly stock analysis and MarketRank™
- Total MarketRank™
- 100%
- Analyst evaluation
- Moderate purchase
- Upside/Downside
- 34.9% up
- Short interest level
- correct
- Earnings power
- strong
- Environmental outcome
- -2.25
- News feelings
- 0.65
- Insider trading
- Selling shares
- project. Earnings growth
- 82.02%
See full analysis
Lilly’s GLP-1 drugs show no signs of slowing down. It has also proven superior to Novo Nordisk’s Semaglutide, as demonstrated by an average body weight loss of 20.2% compared to a 13.7% weight loss in the SURMOUNT-5 trials. Tirzepatide was also approved on December 20, 2024, for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea and is being studied for additional indications, which include chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular risk reduction (38% reduction in heart failure risk) and metabolic dysfunction associated with steatohepatitis. (MASH). . On July 22, 2024, China also approved the obesity drug tirzepatide, the country’s first dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist. However, there are 15 GLP-1 mimetic drugs in development, which will greatly increase competition in the world’s second largest population.
In the third quarter of 2024, Monjaro’s worldwide revenue increased 121% to $3.11 billion. Zepbound’s revenue rose to $1.28 billion. Revenues would have been higher had it not been for the lack of supply. Zepbound launches in the US in November 2023.
3) Retatrutide is the next generation of GLP-1
Lilly expects to launch its tablet version of Tirzepatide in 2026 under the name Orforglipron. To further cement the GLP-1 throne, Lilly is already preparing the next generation of its blockbuster GLP-1 Retatrutide, a triple agonist targeting GIP, GLP-1 and Glucagon receptors. Phase 2 studies indicate that participants achieved an average weight reduction of 17.5% in just 24 weeks and lost 24.2% of body weight over 48 weeks. The safety profile was similar to other incretin-based therapies, and gastrointestinal side effects were the most common.
“Participants treated with the highest dose of retaretide achieved a weight reduction of 24.2%; this translates to an average absolute weight reduction of approximately 58 pounds over the 11 months of the study,” commented Dr. Anya Jastrebov.
Dr. Jastrebov added: “Given that the participants had not yet reached the weight level when the study ended, it appears that the full effectiveness of weight loss has not yet been achieved. “Longer duration phase III trials will enable comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy and tolerability of this potential drug therapy for obesity.”
4) LLY stock forms a daily breakout of the symmetrical triangle
A symmetrical triangle is formed by a falling (bearish) upper trendline resistance which converges with a rising (bullish) lower trendline support at the apex. A breakout occurs when the stock rises above the upper trend line resistance. A breakout occurs when a stock breaks below the lower trend line support. A breakout or breakdown becomes prominent when the stock approaches the high point as the channel narrows.
LLY’s symmetrical triangle formed a falling upper trendline resistance at $907.98 to converge at the apex with a rising lower trendline support starting at $711.40. The fixed daily VWAP support is $776.82. The breakout sparked a rally through the upper trend line resistance of $787.22. The daily RSI rises to the 56 range. Fibonacci (Pullback support levels (Fib) are located at $771.36, $747.56, $717.51, and $678.79.
Actionable options strategies: Bullish investors could consider using cash-secured puts at Fibonacci retracement support levels to buy the dip. If the stock is allocated, writing the covered call at rising Fibonacci levels implements the wheel strategy for income plus an annual dividend yield of 0.83%.
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