When the trading year comes to an end, some of the biggest firms on Wall Street tend to start publishing their forecasts and forecasts for the coming year, and Goldman Sachs is the latest to do so here. Investors need to keep an eye on what these big companies are doing and recommending to their audiences, as some may be disingenuous, and others may be just “talking by their book” to get audiences to adopt their point of view.
Based on several economic and other trading indicators, it appears that Goldman Sachs is talking about its book at the moment rather than fooling the market into a position or behavior that benefits the bank at the expense of Main Street. Knowing this, investors will want to have a pen and paper for this analysis, as is the case with much of what was said in the bank’s report. Macro Forecast Report 2025 Not what it seems.
Ultimately, these are the three main areas where Goldman Sachs wants to be (and support its positions). Bond through iShares 20+ Year Treasure Bond ETF Nasdaq: TLTAnd energy stocks through Power box for selected sector SPDR NYSEARCA:XLEand even industrial stocks composed of net exporters in the United States through Selected Industrial Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA:XLI.
Stocks may be overvalued, buy bonds
Goldman Sachs could have just said this, but they decided to break it all down in a very cut and dry way. However, everything becomes clear to those who want to analyze the language of the report. Goldman talks about the difference in bond yields today compared to the S&P 500 yields, which leads them to believe stocks are overvalued.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Today
iShares 20+ Year Treasure Bond ETF
As of 10/01/2025 at 04:00 PM ET
- 52 week range
- $85.16
▼
$101.64
- Dividend yield
- 4.39%
- Assets under management
- $50.35 billion
According to the data collected and explained in the report, there are greater chances of a stock market decline than of another upward wave. They also state that today’s bond yields are not in line with US GDP growth and inflation rates in 2025, so there is a false chance.
So how do investors know if this is a scam or what to think? There’s no way to know for sure, however Trader compliance report It’s a great start. This report measures future inventory levels for major trading organizations and other market participants, so it is an important metric to track.
It turns out that a lot of the commercials (big banks and prime brokers) are now as short S&P 500 futures as they have been since 2007, and everyone knows what happened next. Meanwhile, inventory levels for 10-year Treasuries are rising, and Goldman appears to be part of that crowd that is shorting stocks and buying bonds.
Oil: Best bet for commodities
Goldman also mentions that commodities could make a great addition to portfolios in 2025. However, they decided to focus on one specific product. Crude oil, they point out, carries a lot of risk of a supply shock, which is an English word that means a high probability that supply will become tight, causing prices to rise.
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund today
Power box for selected sector SPDR
As of 10/01/2025 at 04:10 PM ET
- 52 week range
- $78.98
▼
$98.97
- Dividend yield
- 3.64%
- Assets under management
- $33.71 billion
No wonder Warren Buffett has bought as much as 29% of it Occidental Petroleum Company New York Stock Exchange: Oxy over the past two quarters, or why JPMorgan Chase decided to build a $730.8 million stake in the energy ETF starting December 2024. Even Paul Tudor Jones said in Recent CNBC interview That oil is incredibly cheap.
While most investors would look to gold in this case, the precious metal has shown a significant premium in recent months, which has now begun to subside as inflation prospects decline coupled with geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, in an overall comparison, oil offers the best risk-reward ratio in the commodity world.
In recent weeks, hedge funds have also been heavily positioned in oil futures, leading to aggressive bets that the price of a barrel could soon rise above the resistance level. This article provides full details and list of stocks that may be better suited to deliver market-beating returns.
Net exporters will outperform in 2025
The most surprising part of this report is the way Goldman Sachs talked about currencies. They expressed that the local currency, the dollar, had created tail risks that would push emerging currencies and stocks higher if they materialized. What this means is that stocks like Alibaba Group New York Stock Exchange: Beebe In China, it will witness a huge rise if the dollar falls.
Today’s Select Industrial Sector SPDR Fund
Selected Industrial Sector SPDR Fund
As of 01/10/2025 at 04:10 PM ET
- 52 week range
- $109.95
▼
$144.51
- Dividend yield
- 1.23%
- Assets under management
- $20.08 billion
No wonder Michael Burry and David Tepper They made it the largest position in their portfolio. But what happens as the dollar falls as well? Foreign buyers now have relatively stronger purchasing power to purchase US exports, so the manufacturing sector becomes a good place for them.
According to another Manufacturing PMI reportNew orders have been the most explosive sector of the past 26 months, meaning many U.S. industries are bracing for a potential new export wave. Investors can also note that Wall Street is boosting these three stocks on the back of this export theme.
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