Jabil’s strong earnings and guidance fuel bullish outlook for 2025 – Magic Post

Jabil’s strong earnings and guidance fuel bullish outlook for 2025

 – Magic Post

Byblos today

Jabil Inc logo
$145.00 +4.56 (+3.25%)

(As of 12/20/2024 at 05:40 PM ET)

52 week range
$95.85

$156.94

Dividend yield
0.22%

P/E ratio
13.16

Price target
$153.17

Byblos New York Stock Exchange: JBL It still faces headwinds, but its first-quarter 2025 financial report proves that this business has hit bottom, and the outlook is bright. The report includes contraction in the top line but outperformance in the top and bottom lines compounded by improved guidance to above consensus.

The bottom line is that the contraction is slowing, and business will return to growth soon, by the end of calendar 2025. Analysts’ optimistic trends for 2024 will likely be strengthened in 2025 as the quarters progress because expectations have been light. The strength was driven by important sectors, including cloud, data center infrastructure and digital commerce, which go hand in hand with artificial intelligence and digitalization globally.

Jabil sees strong quarter, raises guidance, shares rise

Jabil had a strong quarter in the fiscal first quarter despite a year-over-year revenue contraction. The company’s net revenue of $6.99 billion was down from a year earlier, but the 16.7% contraction was milder than the prior quarter and beat consensus by a large margin. Analysts were expecting a decline of another 500 basis points and weaker guidance. Margin news is also favorable, with margin shrinking on deleveraging but less than expected. The net result is $2.00 in adjusted EPS, beating targets by $0.012, or approximately 500 basis points.

The market catalyst in results is guidance. The company started its second-quarter guidance strong, setting revenue and earnings targets above market expectations and raising full-year targets. The company now expects adjusted EPS to be approximately $8.75 and may be cautious in that estimate. The growth of data centers and the cloud reached new heights in 2024. It is expected to continue or accelerate in 2025 as hyper-scaled companies, including Apple Nasdaq: Applealphabet Nasdaq:GoogleAnd Amazon Nasdaq: AMZNracing to meet industry demand while developing their technologies.

Cash flow is an important detail for investors. The company’s cash flow has declined due to revenue contraction but is still enough to sustain stock buybacks and a healthy balance sheet. The balance sheet highlights are a bit blurry, with low cash and low equity, but there is a mitigating factor. This is the impact of share buybacks, which include a 5.7% quarter-over-quarter increase in treasury shares and a 13% year-over-year decrease in the number of shares. Although it’s a bad thing on paper, it’s a good thing for investors and supports stock prices over time. Nothing has changed at Jabil, except for converting cash into fewer shares. Other balance sheet highlights include stable debt levels and low leverage with 2x long-term debt.

Analyst sentiments are positive; Institutions will buy Jbeil in 2024

Jabil stock forecast today

12-month stock price forecast:
$153.17
Moderate purchase
Based on 7 analyst ratings
High expectations $179.00
Average expectations $153.17
Low expectations $133.00

Jabil stock forecast details

Byblos analytical activity in 2024 is light but otherwise positive. MarketBeat tracks seven analysts with ratings. Two are pegged at Hold and five are at Buy for a Moderate Buy consensus. The consensus price target assumes the stock is fairly valued at around $145, but the revision trend points to a new all-time high. The first revision to appear on the tracker after the report is an increase in the price target from Goldman Sachs to $145, which is in line with consensus, but recently set targets have put this market near $160, which would be a new high.

Institutional trends are also supporting this market in 2024. Institutions own more than 90% of the shares and buy the balance every quarter, providing a strong tailwind to the market. Their support is unlikely to wane in 2025 due to cash flow, buyback expectations and a very low valuation. This company trades at just 15 times its earnings.

Technical forecasts: Jabil is approaching critical levels

Jabil’s stock price rose following the first quarter release and is likely to trend higher in 2025, adding to the 2024 rebound. However, the market is showing resistance below the 2024 highs which could limit gains over the next few weeks or months. If the market is unable to move higher, it can sell to fill the gap formed after the release, allowing the market to realign with the price action. Critical resistance targets are near $150 and $157.

Jabil JBL stock chart

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